Why are Putin’s forces attacking Ukraine? The simple answer is that dates matter in history, particularly when someone wants to evoke a memory and leave a legacy. For example, Napoleon III’s coup and his other activities recalled the anniversaries of important military victories achieved by his far more famous uncle. Another example is the French Revolution of 1789 which recalled, in part, England’s ‘Glorious Revolution’ of 1689, while the 200th anniversary of the former, in 1989, echoed at both Tiananmen Square and the fall of the Berlin Wall.
Putin will
be turning 70 years of age in October.
More aware now of his own mortality, the year 2022 is also the 100th
anniversary of Lenin’s establishment of the USSR, which was founded on December
30, 1922. Ukraine was part of the USSR since
its inception. Putin probably intends that Ukraine belong to Russia by the time this calendar year is completed.
Lenin, who suffered from series of strokes beginning in 1922, died just over a year after the creation of the Soviet Union, but, before his death in early 1924, warned others of Stalin, thinking of him as too rough and not the best of comrades. The succession battle that followed was won, as we all know, by Stalin, whom Putin admires. In this way, by attacking Ukraine, Putin reconnects with the memory of both Lenin and Stalin while securing Russia’s border for the eventual succession battle that will follow Putin’s own demise. It is doubtful that Putin wants to recreate the Eastern Bloc complete with its Iron Curtain, which included Poland, for example. But Belarus was part of the original USSR, so it might follow the path of Ukraine today, if need be. It is the borders of the old Soviet Union which has captured Putin’s imagination, and that could also include Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia (added in 1940), so beware of cultural memory and aging men, especially if you know of a former KGB agent as head of state.
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