A somewhat reclusive, multi-disciplinary Canadian scientist,
long associated with the University of Manitoba, by the Czech name of Vaclav
Smil, was the inspiration for Bill Gates’ TED Talk prediction that “not
missiles but microbes” will be the next enemy.[1] Gates is known to be an admirer of Smil, and he has
read a great number of his many works, which are published by MIT Press.
Smil writes in his book Global
Catastrophes and Trends, first published in 2008, that “we remain highly
vulnerable to another episode of viral pandemic.”[2]
In light of today’s global crisis, I do recommend seeking out Chapter Two, “Fatal Discontinuities,” in particular the section on
“Influenza Pandemics”. Failing that, look up Smil!
[1]
See my previous blog, below: “Homomorons – excepting Bill Gates,” Saturday, March 21,
2020. At last count over 17 million
people have viewed this particular TED Talk by Gates on YouTube. By comparison, Smil remains a relative unknown.
[2] Vaclav Smil, Global Catastrophes and Trends: The Next Fifty Years (Cambridge, Mass.:
2008), p. 41.
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