Trump’s vote share at 49.9% is a fraction below the 50% mark. My guess is, if Covid-19 hadn’t killed so many anti-vaxxer Republican supporters in the previous two administrations (Trump's followed by Biden's), then Trump would have passed the 50% threshold at the November 2024 elections.
See: James Fitzgerald, “Just how big was Donald Trump's election victory?” BBC News online, 22 Nov. 2024.
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