“A Very Stable Genius”

Source: The Globe and Mail (04 April 2025).

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The Polls Toll for Canada: Angus Reid Surveys

 
     Artist: Lynda Smith

51st State: Canadian resolve in saying ‘no’ continues, while a massive gap between Trump & Americans is revealed

60% of Americans say they have no interest in Canada joining, 32% say only if Canada wants to

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March 12, 2025 – U.S. President Donald Trump continues to escalate his trade war and annexation rhetoric this week, leaving economists, commentators, and even supporters wondering about his motivations.

New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds Trump’s repeated threats to make Canada the 51^st state out of line with the views and opinions of his own country and voters. Asked about this idea, three-in-five Americans and 44 per cent of Trump voters say they have “no interest” in seeing Canada join the U.S. Further, one-in-three Americans and 42 per cent of Trump voters say they would only be interested if the idea was supported by Canadians.

It isn’t.

For the second time in 2025, Angus Reid Institute finds nine-in-10 Canadians saying they would vote ‘no’ to joining the United States if given the option.

Amid continued threats, more than half of Canadians now think Trump is serious about this (54%). In January, just one-in-three (32%) felt this way. South of the border there has also been in increase in the proportion who feel Trump is serious, but to a smaller extent, rising from 22 to 34 per cent.

One notable domestic dynamic at play is the higher number of current Conservative Party supporters who would vote ‘yes’ on this question, and the implications of the expected federal election. At present, one-in-five would-be CPC voters say they would vote yes, compared to almost zero Liberal (2%), NDP (3%), and Bloc Québécois (1%) voters. Angus Reid Institute asked those Conservative supporters if they would change their vote to join the U.S. in the event of a Liberal majority in the next federal election and found a 12-point increase in yes voters, up to 33 per cent.

About ARI

The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration, domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of importance to Canada and its world.

INDEX

Part One: Number who believe Trump is serious grows in both countries

Part Two: Canadians offer a resounding ‘no’ to joining

• Nine-in-ten Canadians would vote no to joining the U.S.
• Men more interested than women
• One-in-five Conservatives would vote ‘yes’

Part Three: Americans don’t want Canada

 

Part One: Number who believe Trump is serious grows in both countries

Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in the process of handing over historic responsibility to Prime Minister-designate Mark Carney, though he will be challenged imminently in a federal election to maintain it. U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten escalating tariffs on Canada, in what Trudeau has described as an effort to “collapse” the Canadian economy in an effort to make annexation of this country easier. While those threats were seen as a joke a few months ago, the environment in March is much different. A majority of Canadians now feel Trump is serious (54%), a 22-point increase compared to January. In the United States, 35 per cent now say Trump is serious, a 13-point jump.

Belief that Trump is serious about annexing Canada has increased across the political spectrum but has grown the most among those who voted Bloc Québécois in the 2021 federal election. Now majorities of all 2021 voting groups – except Conservative voters – say that making Canada the 51^st state is a “real ambition” of Trump’s:

Part Two: Canadians offer a resounding ‘no’ to joining

Shark Tank and Dragon’s Den personality Kevin O’Leary recently opined about the desire of Canadians to join the United States, stating that half of Canadians would be interested. We’d love to know where Mr. O’Leary is finding his data.

Nine-in-ten Canadians would vote no to joining the U.S.

Angus Reid Institute asked Canadians in both January and again this month if they would be interested in joining the United States, finding the same number – approximately nine-in-10 – saying they would vote no in a referendum on the issue:

Men more interested than women

There are some pockets of the Canadian population that are more amenable to Trump’s overtures. Among men 35- to 54-years of age, one-in-five (22%) say they would vote yes to join our southern neighbour in union, more than twice as many as their same-aged female counterparts. Young men, too, show a higher affinity for American annexation, though the vast majority dissent:

One-in-five Conservatives would vote ‘yes’

Would-be Conservative Party voters are significantly more likely than those who would vote for other parties to say they would vote yes on joining the U.S., indeed, making up almost the entire population in Canada willing to do so. One-in-five CPC supporters would vote yes, compared to three per cent or less among other partisans:

The political motivation among Conservatives – who haven’t formed government for a decade now – drives some of this sentiment. Note that when CPC supporters are asked how would respond to another Liberal majority government in the next election, the size of the “vote yes” population increases by 50 per cent to one-in-three:

Part Three: Americans don’t want Canada

Angus Reid Institute data has recently suggested that President Trump is out of step with both his country and even a significant segment of his own voters in his tariff threats and general approach to Canada. The same is evidently true when it comes to the annexation of Canada.

Asked whether they have any interest in acquiring Canada through annexation, Americans are largely opposed. Three-in-five (60%) say they have no interest at all in this, while those who do are largely only interested if Canadians want to join (which they clearly do not):

Even among Trump’s own voters from the November election, there is little desire to take Canada by either political and economic pressure (12%) or by force (2%). Equal numbers of Trump voters say they would only want Canada if Canadians wanted to join (42%) or they aren’t interested at all (44%) in this conversation:

Survey Methodology:

The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from Feb. 27 to March 3, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,005 Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

ARI conducted a second online survey from Feb. 27 to March 3, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,005 American adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.

Source: The Angus Reid Institute