Artist: Lynda Smith
51st
State: Canadian resolve in saying ‘no’ continues, while a massive gap between
Trump & Americans is revealed
60%
of Americans say they have no interest in Canada joining, 32% say only if
Canada wants to
March 12, 2025 – U.S. President Donald Trump
continues to escalate his trade war and annexation rhetoric this week,
leaving economists, commentators, and even supporters wondering about his
motivations.
New data from the non-profit Angus Reid Institute finds
Trump’s repeated threats to make Canada the 51st state out of
line with the views and opinions of his own country and voters. Asked about
this idea, three-in-five Americans and 44 per cent of Trump voters say they
have “no interest” in seeing Canada join the U.S. Further, one-in-three
Americans and 42 per cent of Trump voters say they would only be interested if
the idea was supported by Canadians.
It isn’t.
For the second time in 2025, Angus Reid Institute finds
nine-in-10 Canadians saying they would vote ‘no’ to joining the United States
if given the option.
Amid continued threats, more than half of Canadians now
think Trump is serious about this (54%). In January, just one-in-three (32%)
felt this way. South of the border there has also been in increase in the
proportion who feel Trump is serious, but to a smaller extent, rising from 22
to 34 per cent.
One notable domestic dynamic at play is the higher number of
current Conservative Party supporters who would vote ‘yes’ on this question,
and the implications of the expected federal election. At present, one-in-five
would-be CPC voters say they would vote yes, compared to almost zero Liberal
(2%), NDP (3%), and Bloc Québécois (1%) voters. Angus Reid Institute asked
those Conservative supporters if they would change their vote to join the U.S.
in the event of a Liberal majority in the next federal election and found a
12-point increase in yes voters, up to 33 per cent.
About ARI
The Angus Reid Institute (ARI) was
founded in October 2014 by pollster and sociologist, Dr. Angus Reid. ARI is a
national, not-for-profit, non-partisan public opinion research foundation
established to advance education by commissioning, conducting and disseminating
to the public accessible and impartial statistical data, research and policy
analysis on economics, political science, philanthropy, public administration,
domestic and international affairs and other socio-economic issues of
importance to Canada and its world.
INDEX
Part One: Number who believe Trump is serious grows in
both countries
Part Two: Canadians offer a resounding ‘no’ to joining
- Nine-in-ten
Canadians would vote no to joining the U.S.
- Men
more interested than women
- One-in-five
Conservatives would vote ‘yes’
Part Three: Americans don’t want Canada
Part One: Number who believe Trump is serious grows in
both countries
Outgoing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is in the process of
handing over historic responsibility to Prime Minister-designate Mark Carney,
though he will be challenged imminently in a federal election to maintain it.
U.S. President Donald Trump continues to threaten escalating tariffs on Canada,
in what Trudeau has described as an effort to “collapse” the Canadian economy
in an effort to make annexation of this country easier. While those threats
were seen as a joke a few months ago, the environment in March is much
different. A majority of Canadians now feel Trump is serious (54%), a 22-point
increase compared to January. In the United States, 35 per cent now say Trump
is serious, a 13-point jump.
Belief that Trump is serious about annexing Canada has
increased across the political spectrum but has grown the most among those who
voted Bloc Québécois in the 2021 federal election. Now majorities of all 2021
voting groups – except Conservative voters – say that making Canada the 51st state
is a “real ambition” of Trump’s:
Part Two: Canadians offer a resounding ‘no’ to joining
Shark Tank and Dragon’s Den personality Kevin O’Leary recently
opined about the desire of Canadians to join the United States, stating that
half of Canadians would be interested. We’d love to know where Mr. O’Leary is
finding his data.
Nine-in-ten Canadians would vote no to joining the
U.S.
Angus Reid Institute asked Canadians in both January and
again this month if they would be interested in joining the United States,
finding the same number – approximately nine-in-10 – saying they would vote no
in a referendum on the issue:
Men more interested than women
There are some pockets of the Canadian population that are
more amenable to Trump’s overtures. Among men 35- to 54-years of age,
one-in-five (22%) say they would vote yes to join our southern neighbour in
union, more than twice as many as their same-aged female counterparts. Young
men, too, show a higher affinity for American annexation, though the vast
majority dissent:
One-in-five Conservatives would vote ‘yes’
Would-be Conservative Party voters are significantly more
likely than those who would vote for other parties to say they would vote yes
on joining the U.S., indeed, making up almost the entire population in Canada
willing to do so. One-in-five CPC supporters would vote yes, compared to three
per cent or less among other partisans:
The political motivation among Conservatives – who haven’t
formed government for a decade now – drives some of this sentiment. Note that
when CPC supporters are asked how would respond to another Liberal majority
government in the next election, the size of the “vote yes” population
increases by 50 per cent to one-in-three:
Part Three: Americans don’t want Canada
Angus Reid Institute data has recently suggested that
President Trump is out of step with both his country and even a significant
segment of his own voters in his tariff threats and general approach to
Canada. The same is evidently true when it comes to the annexation of
Canada.
Asked whether they have any interest in acquiring Canada
through annexation, Americans are largely opposed. Three-in-five (60%) say they
have no interest at all in this, while those who do are largely only interested
if Canadians want to join (which they clearly do not):
Even among Trump’s own voters from the November election,
there is little desire to take Canada by either political and economic pressure
(12%) or by force (2%). Equal numbers of Trump voters say they would only want
Canada if Canadians wanted to join (42%) or they aren’t interested at all (44%)
in this conversation:
Survey Methodology:
The Angus Reid Institute conducted an online survey from
Feb. 27 to March 3, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,005
Canadian adults who are members of Angus Reid Forum. For
comparison purposes only, a probability sample of this size would carry a
margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.
ARI conducted a second online survey from Feb. 27 to
March 3, 2025 among a representative randomized sample of 2,005 American adults
who are members of Angus Reid Forum USA. For comparison purposes only, a probability sample
of this size would carry a margin of error of +/- 2 percentage points, 19 times
out of 20.
Discrepancies in or between totals are due to rounding. The
survey was self-commissioned and paid for by ARI.
Source: The Angus Reid Institute
